Interviewed on BBC's Today radio programme this morning, leading Brexiter Iain Duncan Smith dismissed a forecast about to be released by the Treasury. The forecast is another dire warning about the economic consequences of the UK leaving the EU. Mr Smith's justification was simple. They did not forecast the crash in 2008 so why should anything they say be taken seriously now?
One little problem. I don't recall Mr Smith forecasting the crash either. So if the accuracy of past warnings is anything to go on, why should his forecast, that the UK will be alright if it leaves, be worth any more than that of people who spend all day analysing economic matters?