A celebratory ode as Nigel F. puts his leader's hat back on after his party refused to let him go.
So welcome back then Nigel Farage
You only took the weekend off
Perhaps you sorted out your garage
Or took a stroll on Southend Pier
Your party threw you out of triage*
Refused to let you hibernate
Though power still remains a mirage
It's time to sink another beer
*yes, I know, you try finding a decent rhyme for "Farage" that hasn't already been used
Showing posts with label Election 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2015. Show all posts
Monday, May 11, 2015
Sunday, May 10, 2015
Election 2015 - Trying to make sense of it all
The dust is still settling on the amazing result of the general election. This column, like everyone else, accepted the opinion polls verdict that the votes would be split between Labour and Conservatives and a hung parliament would result. The real vote put some 6% between those parties and far from a swing against the Government, the Conservatives achieved a absolute majority in the House of Commons. This result was even greater than the BBC's exit poll predicted and that poll, announced at the stroke of 10pm as voting ceased, was regarded by everyone as rogue and overstating the swing to the Tories (until the first dozen results were in).
Therefore not only did the very many polls taken over the weeks up to the election fail to predict correctly but the exit poll, based on a very large sample and taken from people with no reason to conceal their preferences, was unable to gauge the full impact on voting patterns in key marginals. Does this tell us something about poll methodology or about voter decision making? Either the polls are based on false assumptions or many voters changed their minds in the final hours. If the latter, this has been seen before in UK elections but not on the scale of last Thursday.
The polls did get it right in Scotland where a social democratic bloc that can genuinely claim to represent the whole country now faces a conservative government that cannot make the same claim, not even for England where the Tory vote was 41% of the total cast. Did the English vote harden to the right in the face of the predicted landslide north of the border? Can most of the UKIP votes (14% in England) be treated as straying Tories who will return or has there been a shift to UKIP from Labour as well? If so, this, coupled with the LibDem wipeout, suggests a very serious problem for the left wing in England. How long can the union survive with the two main regions so opposed? Two generations ago the Tories were as strong in Scotland as in England - now they have almost ceased to exist.
It is fair to point out that the SNP gained just 50% of votes in Scotland. Is this their high tide? If they begin to fall back, and it is recognised that many of their voters do not support their fundamental policy aim of full independence, maybe the union can stagger on for a while. But if the forthcoming referendum on the EU results in a British withdrawal, surely the Scots will put every effort behind independence so that they can remain in, and the result of Cameron's victory will be the breakup of the UK and its isolation from European partners, massive loss of influence with the USA (which most definitely wants the UK to stay in the EU) and a diminishment of the whole of what used to be the UK.
This blogger supports UK membership of the EU, believes in the UK as a real force for good in the world and that British values of tolerance, freedom and fairness are vital. The 2015 election has put much of this in the hazard.
Therefore not only did the very many polls taken over the weeks up to the election fail to predict correctly but the exit poll, based on a very large sample and taken from people with no reason to conceal their preferences, was unable to gauge the full impact on voting patterns in key marginals. Does this tell us something about poll methodology or about voter decision making? Either the polls are based on false assumptions or many voters changed their minds in the final hours. If the latter, this has been seen before in UK elections but not on the scale of last Thursday.
The polls did get it right in Scotland where a social democratic bloc that can genuinely claim to represent the whole country now faces a conservative government that cannot make the same claim, not even for England where the Tory vote was 41% of the total cast. Did the English vote harden to the right in the face of the predicted landslide north of the border? Can most of the UKIP votes (14% in England) be treated as straying Tories who will return or has there been a shift to UKIP from Labour as well? If so, this, coupled with the LibDem wipeout, suggests a very serious problem for the left wing in England. How long can the union survive with the two main regions so opposed? Two generations ago the Tories were as strong in Scotland as in England - now they have almost ceased to exist.
It is fair to point out that the SNP gained just 50% of votes in Scotland. Is this their high tide? If they begin to fall back, and it is recognised that many of their voters do not support their fundamental policy aim of full independence, maybe the union can stagger on for a while. But if the forthcoming referendum on the EU results in a British withdrawal, surely the Scots will put every effort behind independence so that they can remain in, and the result of Cameron's victory will be the breakup of the UK and its isolation from European partners, massive loss of influence with the USA (which most definitely wants the UK to stay in the EU) and a diminishment of the whole of what used to be the UK.
This blogger supports UK membership of the EU, believes in the UK as a real force for good in the world and that British values of tolerance, freedom and fairness are vital. The 2015 election has put much of this in the hazard.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Election 2015 - an elegy for Nigel
So farewell then Nigel Farage
Thumped in Thanet, marred in Margate
Deflated by a heavy barrage
as Tory voters stood their ground.
Perhaps you should have tried in Harwich
but then again, it always was
going to be an awkward marriage
It's time to drink that final round
Thumped in Thanet, marred in Margate
Deflated by a heavy barrage
as Tory voters stood their ground.
Perhaps you should have tried in Harwich
but then again, it always was
going to be an awkward marriage
It's time to drink that final round
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
The Battle for Uxbridge and Ruislip South - 7: Isn't it quiet in here?
You wouldn't think there was an election on. Hardly a poster or placard in sight. No candidates patrolling the streets with posses of rosetted supporters and no mysteriously crackly and undecipherable loudspeaker announcements that always seem to come from the street round the corner but never your own street. No new leaflets through our door in the last week.
The winner, B. Johnson, continues to make national news as he positions himself carefully near to, but somehow a step away from, the man whose political career he may shortly terminate, if results do not go to plan. Consequently he has not been much in evidence around here but, then again, he doesn't have to do a damn thing locally and he will still get a thumping majority.
Meanwhile the polls show no movement at all. Labour and Conservatives locked at about 32% each and, depressingly, UKIP the next most popular party. For twenty years before the American Civil War there was an "American Party", commonly known as the "know-nothings". It was anti-Catholic and anti immigration, and especially anti-Catholic-immigration. There is a parallel with UKIP and its "I don't really understand all this but I know I'm against it" gut reaction to most political questions. I hope UKIP's longevity matches that of the know-nothings and it fades into the sunset after tomorrow.
The winner, B. Johnson, continues to make national news as he positions himself carefully near to, but somehow a step away from, the man whose political career he may shortly terminate, if results do not go to plan. Consequently he has not been much in evidence around here but, then again, he doesn't have to do a damn thing locally and he will still get a thumping majority.
Meanwhile the polls show no movement at all. Labour and Conservatives locked at about 32% each and, depressingly, UKIP the next most popular party. For twenty years before the American Civil War there was an "American Party", commonly known as the "know-nothings". It was anti-Catholic and anti immigration, and especially anti-Catholic-immigration. There is a parallel with UKIP and its "I don't really understand all this but I know I'm against it" gut reaction to most political questions. I hope UKIP's longevity matches that of the know-nothings and it fades into the sunset after tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Election 2015 - Coalition looms
Because the UK had a stable two-party system for so long, it has become difficult to contemplate a future in which coalition government is normal. Yet a wider historical perspective would show that there have been frequent times when the two main parties splintered and deals had to be struck to keep a majority afloat or a third party managed to prevent one of the others from gaining a majority; going further back, the very concept of a party was unknown back in the 17c and 18c when faction and personal interest dominated and political alliances were formed as much from individual likes and dislikes as from a broad agreement on policy.
We have a parliamentary system. The vote this Thursday will allow us to choose our representatives. We do not get a vote on who is to become Prime Minister, nor on which parties may form the next government. No party is entitled to claim a right to form the government unless they can show they have a working majority in the Commons. Any group of parties that can do so are entitled to vote down any government lacking such support and to claim the right to form the government themselves. For parties to disdain the idea of coalition is a form of contempt for democracy. If most of us vote for several parties who are able to work together then this is a very good expression of democracy.
Furthermore, although politicians will say that coalitions inhibit them and they dislike the horse-trading, as much of this goes on within the parties as between them. Both Labour and Conservatives have had searing internal rows on divisive issues, including our future in the EU, trade union rights,immigration, privitisation and others. There are special interest groups within the parties that have to be appeased, sometimes going against mainstream policy, although one could argue that with party membership way lower than it used to be, the parties are less broadly representative. But coalitions within the parties produce a broad consensus that makes them appeal to a wide range of voters and the same principle should apply between the parties.
In short, there is no reason why my political interests should be the same as yours, but in most cases it makes sense for us to work together to secure the most reasonable result.
We have a parliamentary system. The vote this Thursday will allow us to choose our representatives. We do not get a vote on who is to become Prime Minister, nor on which parties may form the next government. No party is entitled to claim a right to form the government unless they can show they have a working majority in the Commons. Any group of parties that can do so are entitled to vote down any government lacking such support and to claim the right to form the government themselves. For parties to disdain the idea of coalition is a form of contempt for democracy. If most of us vote for several parties who are able to work together then this is a very good expression of democracy.
Furthermore, although politicians will say that coalitions inhibit them and they dislike the horse-trading, as much of this goes on within the parties as between them. Both Labour and Conservatives have had searing internal rows on divisive issues, including our future in the EU, trade union rights,immigration, privitisation and others. There are special interest groups within the parties that have to be appeased, sometimes going against mainstream policy, although one could argue that with party membership way lower than it used to be, the parties are less broadly representative. But coalitions within the parties produce a broad consensus that makes them appeal to a wide range of voters and the same principle should apply between the parties.
In short, there is no reason why my political interests should be the same as yours, but in most cases it makes sense for us to work together to secure the most reasonable result.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
The Battle for Uxbridge and Ruislip South (or somewhere else) - 6
Another flyer from the Greens this morning. On behalf of the candidate for the neighbouring constituency, Ruislip Northwood and Pinner. I've heard of people being keen and all that but surely they can't expect my vote in two places?
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Election 2015 - "Democracy is only real when you vote for us" - SNP
I am somewhat distorting the views expressed the other day by Nicola Sturgeon when interviewed on the Today programme on the BBC. It was early in the morning and I was listening only half awake but I am pretty sure she said "The voters have rejected the two party system".
Opinion polls are consistently showing about 34% of voters supporting the Conservatives and 34% supporting Labour. For the benefit of numerically-challenged politicians (naming no names, Ms. S. but I think you know who I'm writing about), that adds to 68%. More than 2 out of every 3 British voters supports one or other of the two mainstream parties. This is not voter rejection. This is a fairly whopping voter support of it. True, the SNP is doing very well in Scotland. In the context of the elections for the UK parliament, elections supported by 55% of the Scottish electorate at the referendum, the two party system continues to be representative of a very substantial majority.
Opinion polls are consistently showing about 34% of voters supporting the Conservatives and 34% supporting Labour. For the benefit of numerically-challenged politicians (naming no names, Ms. S. but I think you know who I'm writing about), that adds to 68%. More than 2 out of every 3 British voters supports one or other of the two mainstream parties. This is not voter rejection. This is a fairly whopping voter support of it. True, the SNP is doing very well in Scotland. In the context of the elections for the UK parliament, elections supported by 55% of the Scottish electorate at the referendum, the two party system continues to be representative of a very substantial majority.
Monday, April 27, 2015
The Battle for Uxbridge and Ruislip South - 5
The Green party candidate sent a flyer round. It includes the following
I had a think about this. Most of the rail traffic through this area is on the London Underground system which is in public ownership. The bit that isn't is the line in the extreme south of the constituency that runs into Paddington, the old Great Western line and probably only West Drayton station is within the borders. So it is unclear how changing the ownership of this line can have any effect on traffic in the rest of the constituency. It is even less clear what "proper" public transport services should be; the candidate does not bother to specify. If there were to be public ownership and presumably greater investment in rolling stock, signals and the frequency of services, how would this be paid for? We are not told.
I am strongly in favour of public transport so I totally agree with the sentiments expressed but sadly, in the current economic climate, I think they remain out of reach.
Finally, what of HS2? The candidate is pictured behind a banner opposing it. But there is no mention of it in the stated list of Green party policies. And surely, as a massive investment in public transport that will be a direct challenger to both motorway and airline, is it not to be applauded? If not, what sort of public transport should we be investing in?
One of our biggest problems in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is traffic congestion. We need a proper public transport service that takes the railway back into public ownership at the end of the current franchises.
I had a think about this. Most of the rail traffic through this area is on the London Underground system which is in public ownership. The bit that isn't is the line in the extreme south of the constituency that runs into Paddington, the old Great Western line and probably only West Drayton station is within the borders. So it is unclear how changing the ownership of this line can have any effect on traffic in the rest of the constituency. It is even less clear what "proper" public transport services should be; the candidate does not bother to specify. If there were to be public ownership and presumably greater investment in rolling stock, signals and the frequency of services, how would this be paid for? We are not told.
I am strongly in favour of public transport so I totally agree with the sentiments expressed but sadly, in the current economic climate, I think they remain out of reach.
Finally, what of HS2? The candidate is pictured behind a banner opposing it. But there is no mention of it in the stated list of Green party policies. And surely, as a massive investment in public transport that will be a direct challenger to both motorway and airline, is it not to be applauded? If not, what sort of public transport should we be investing in?
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
The Battle for Uxbridge and Ruislip South - 4
After a refreshing week away in the western extremities of our island, Mrs. C and I returned to find a small swathe of electioneering material waiting for us on the doormat. Each contains broad promises about spending more on the NHS. None of them analyse the current economic problems facing our country and explain how they will manage our tax and spending systems to cope. None explain how they will alter policies should they go into coalition, even though this still appears the most likely outcome of the election. One cannot make any form of judgement about fitness to rule from this stuff.
However, only five of the thirteen candidates declared for this seat have communicated with us so far. Boris J. is well in the lead having today sent a further highly polished missive to add to one sent ten days ago. For the record, as well as the main parties (Con, Lab, LibDem), we have UKIP, Green, a Realist, a Communities United (whose short leaflet contained half a dozen examples of broken or poor English and not one reference to anything local or even where the candidate lives), a TUSC , three independents and two nutters:- the Monster Raving Loony party represented by "Howling Laud" Hope (sic) and The Eccentric Party of Great Party by Lord Toby Jug.
I would certainly attend hustings between the last two named to see which has the dafter policies and, more important, the most flamboyant costume, the silliest supporters and the most eye-catching gimmicks to enliven their campaigns.
The winner continues to make national news. Boris was on the front page of the papers today, photographed at RAF Uxbridge in the control room where the Battle of Britain was directed. A glimpse into the future, perhaps?
However, only five of the thirteen candidates declared for this seat have communicated with us so far. Boris J. is well in the lead having today sent a further highly polished missive to add to one sent ten days ago. For the record, as well as the main parties (Con, Lab, LibDem), we have UKIP, Green, a Realist, a Communities United (whose short leaflet contained half a dozen examples of broken or poor English and not one reference to anything local or even where the candidate lives), a TUSC , three independents and two nutters:- the Monster Raving Loony party represented by "Howling Laud" Hope (sic) and The Eccentric Party of Great Party by Lord Toby Jug.
I would certainly attend hustings between the last two named to see which has the dafter policies and, more important, the most flamboyant costume, the silliest supporters and the most eye-catching gimmicks to enliven their campaigns.
The winner continues to make national news. Boris was on the front page of the papers today, photographed at RAF Uxbridge in the control room where the Battle of Britain was directed. A glimpse into the future, perhaps?
Saturday, April 11, 2015
The Battle for Uxbridge and Ruislip South - 3
As promised and only ten minutes late, Boris made his appearance on a street just yards from my house this morning, neatly dodging the heavy rain shower that has helped sweep away the cough-inducing pollution of recent days. A group of about 40 locals gathered. This was a very surprisingly low-key meeting - no cameras, rosettes, leaflets or banners and just a couple of local councillors, one of whom (the leader of Hillingdon Council) acted as Boris' chauffeur and minder.
Mr. J. made a short but cogent speech drawing on his Mayoral experience and pledging to be a strong representative. I was unable to be present for most of it due to another engagement but he touched on transport, housing and HS2 whilst I was there. He came across far better than his TV image of tousle-haired Bullingdon buffoon. A pity that he thought Sir John Randall was our retiring MP - until the redrawing of constituency boundaries, we were in Ruislip-Northwood and represented by Nick Hurd.
On another topic, whilst the BBC describes my part of this constituency as Ruislip South, the polling card has it as South Ruislip. This is hard to fathom. South Ruislip is some way away and has its own tube station. Geographically we are not South of Ruislip but East of the ancient village centre. So Ruislip South, which is clearly a political designation, is much more fitting than South Ruislip which is a geographical description. Well done the BBC and no credit to the officials who have falsely named us.
Mr. J. made a short but cogent speech drawing on his Mayoral experience and pledging to be a strong representative. I was unable to be present for most of it due to another engagement but he touched on transport, housing and HS2 whilst I was there. He came across far better than his TV image of tousle-haired Bullingdon buffoon. A pity that he thought Sir John Randall was our retiring MP - until the redrawing of constituency boundaries, we were in Ruislip-Northwood and represented by Nick Hurd.
On another topic, whilst the BBC describes my part of this constituency as Ruislip South, the polling card has it as South Ruislip. This is hard to fathom. South Ruislip is some way away and has its own tube station. Geographically we are not South of Ruislip but East of the ancient village centre. So Ruislip South, which is clearly a political designation, is much more fitting than South Ruislip which is a geographical description. Well done the BBC and no credit to the officials who have falsely named us.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Election 2015 - Sausage Roll Scandal Probe Bid Stuns UKIP
Story of the day has to be this one. In the 18th century elections meant a massive free-for-all booze up in the town centre with each candidate plying the voters with as much alcohol as they could hold. We are a little more decorous today. UKIP has wisely abandoned the barrels of gin and hog roast approach and chosen to champion the humble, yet always welcome, sausage roll in their attempt to woo the good folk of Southampton.
Hopefully this will sway the candidates in other seats. Some of us here in NW London are quite partial to the odd sausage roll, not to mention pork pies, pasties, yorkshire puddings and barbecued spare ribs. Are you listening Boris? If you want my vote then you know how to go about securing it.
Hopefully this will sway the candidates in other seats. Some of us here in NW London are quite partial to the odd sausage roll, not to mention pork pies, pasties, yorkshire puddings and barbecued spare ribs. Are you listening Boris? If you want my vote then you know how to go about securing it.
Tuesday, April 07, 2015
The battle for Uxbridge & Ruislip South - 2
Another communication from shock-haired Latinist Boris J., inviting us to meet him on the open space near to our house this weekend. Should I ask him about independence for Ruislip, and the annexation of Northwood to bring it back under our control, as was the case for centuries?
Monday, April 06, 2015
The battle for Uxbridge & Ruislip South - 1
Mr. B. Johnson has got off to an early start, delivering a short pamphlet purporting to be a "contract" 'twixt himself and the voters. Most of it is vague stuff about what others will be doing, including the local council and the GLA, and there are obligatory references to Heathrow expansion and HS2. But there can be no denying that he has won the first round. How much time he will have for local constituency matters once he has supplanted Cameron as Tory party leader remains to be seen.
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Election 2015 - It's all kicking off
I suppose I need to make a few topical jottings to reflect the near hysteria mild interest in the approaching dissolution of Parliament. It's odd to have the date fixed so far in advance. Speculation about precisely when an election would take place could be guaranteed to fill many column inches in the Press in the old days. Today other stories are jostling for attention instead
- David Cameron's TV interview where he revealed his intention to stand down after a second full term and named his likely successors.
- Nigel Farage's attempts to keep some sort of party around him as candidate after candidate implodes
- The SNP, resurgent after the near defeat in the Referendum, fancies itself to hold the balance of power once it has done terrible damage to the other parties in the Scottish seats.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Head vs. Heart
Yesterday I wrote about the unspoken theme behind the Tories "not racist" slogan,and hoped this would backfire. Pleasing to see that the headline in the Guardian today suggesting that it is, and that leading Tories are becoming worried by the tactic.
All parties have their written policies and their instincts. What they put in a manifesto, debate at conferences and put across to the electorate is one thing. What they will actually do when in power and confronted by the pressure of events is something else. Often, trying to make a quick decision in awkward circumstances, with civil servants telling them that their ideas don't or won't work in practice and with newspapers kneejerk headlines pulling them in directions they may not have planned to go, they fall back on their instincts. "Is he one of us?" Mrs. Thatcher used to ask about her colleagues. Everyone knew what she meant. Labour used to have its test of whether someone was a true socialist.
My fear is of Tory instincts. The instincts that led to the introduction of the Poll tax and the privatisation of the railways. The anti-Europe, little-Britain what ever happened to the Empire mindset. The "all foreigners are scroungers and lazy layabouts who only come here to claim social security and when you chuck them out they complain about human rights violations" attitudes that underly the "you know its really quite reasonable to discuss immigration" approach. Howard Flight spoke truly when he told what he thought was a private audience that the Tories had a real agenda about tax cuts but they couldn't talk about it until they were in power. His audience understood perfectly. Michael Howard understood perfectly as well - such things must not be discussed in public full stop. So he sacked the hapless Flight as vice-chairman and then barred him from standing as an MP. But this only illustrates my point. The roots of Toryism run very deep and will keep on springing up no matter what the leadership says. There are plenty of decent people in the Conservative party - can they steer the party on a course fitting its higher ideals?
All parties have their written policies and their instincts. What they put in a manifesto, debate at conferences and put across to the electorate is one thing. What they will actually do when in power and confronted by the pressure of events is something else. Often, trying to make a quick decision in awkward circumstances, with civil servants telling them that their ideas don't or won't work in practice and with newspapers kneejerk headlines pulling them in directions they may not have planned to go, they fall back on their instincts. "Is he one of us?" Mrs. Thatcher used to ask about her colleagues. Everyone knew what she meant. Labour used to have its test of whether someone was a true socialist.
My fear is of Tory instincts. The instincts that led to the introduction of the Poll tax and the privatisation of the railways. The anti-Europe, little-Britain what ever happened to the Empire mindset. The "all foreigners are scroungers and lazy layabouts who only come here to claim social security and when you chuck them out they complain about human rights violations" attitudes that underly the "you know its really quite reasonable to discuss immigration" approach. Howard Flight spoke truly when he told what he thought was a private audience that the Tories had a real agenda about tax cuts but they couldn't talk about it until they were in power. His audience understood perfectly. Michael Howard understood perfectly as well - such things must not be discussed in public full stop. So he sacked the hapless Flight as vice-chairman and then barred him from standing as an MP. But this only illustrates my point. The roots of Toryism run very deep and will keep on springing up no matter what the leadership says. There are plenty of decent people in the Conservative party - can they steer the party on a course fitting its higher ideals?
Tuesday, April 12, 2005
Brilliant timing
Congratulations to Sarah and Charles Kennedy on the arrival of their new baby.
Now let's be honest. Would we rather drool over a snap of happy parents and bundle of joy, or another boring election manifesto (the launch of which was postponed due to said arrival)? I know I would (drool that is).
Was it a wonderful coincidence or did some brutal political scheming take place during early September?
Now let's be honest. Would we rather drool over a snap of happy parents and bundle of joy, or another boring election manifesto (the launch of which was postponed due to said arrival)? I know I would (drool that is).
Was it a wonderful coincidence or did some brutal political scheming take place during early September?
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