It's the day after and, despite a very late night, I have dragged myself back to the pressure-cooker vortex at the hub of Ramblings Central to sum it all up. The polls were pretty much there, although the prospect of a complete annihilation of the Conservatives, that seemed possible a couple of weeks ago, receded when the exit polls were published at 10pm. Labour have won 211 seats, the LibDems 63. The Tories have lost 250 and the SNP 38. And yet the share of the vote for each party does not reflect this huge shift. Labour's share has barely changed from the debacle of 2019. The collapse in the Tory vote is mainly down to Reform who received more votes than the LibDems but only took 5 seats. Tactical voting has been the winner of this election, with Labour performing insipidly in safe seats and much better where there was something to gain.
All those flyers and leaflets may have helped the local LibDem candidate win spectacularly here in Stratford-on-Avon. [And it is 'on' rather than 'upon'. 'On' denotes the council district and constituency, while 'upon' means the town: Ed]. Other Conservative seats with similar profiles did not fall.
A tactical election is about getting the incumbents out and accepting that whatever pattern is thrown up by the outcome is better. It is a negative way to choose a government and the result of this election is that Labour has total dominance in the House of Commons but cannot point to a popular mandate. It is going to have to tread carefully. But not as carefully as the Conservatives. Somehow they must reestablish credibility but with which set of voters? - the incoherent "stop immigration and let's get our country back" of the Brexiteers, now given full voice by Reform, or the more traditional centrist strand, the sort represented by John Major and David Cameron in the past.
There were one or two "Portillo" moments [Older readers will recall the shock. and visceral delight of his political opponents, when the cheerleader for Thatcherite politics, but now rather decent train-loving TV presenter, was ejected from his seat at Enfield Southgate in 1997;Ed]. Liz Truss lost her safe seat in Norfolk, the coda to the strange and sudden collapse of her prime ministerial period. My favourite was Jacob Rees-Mogg ousted from North East Somerset. This was the man who, as a minister, liked to dictate to his civil servants how to use English grammar and whose latest policy wheeze was to fix the problem of unwanted immigration. This was how it was reported on the Politico website
When I came across this quote, I spent some time imagining how one might put a wall up and, crucially, which firm one might appoint to do the job. Some experience at working in damp conditions, and a really plentiful supply of bricks, would be essentials. Probably need access to at least a couple of vans and have several brickies on call. Whether Moggy would have been on hand to supply the tea and biscuits ("Six sugars, thanks, guv") or would have delegated this task to his butler is not clear. There was also the delicate question of the bill ...
"Yerse, well, squire, I know we estimated five hundred nicker, plus VAT of course, but, well, the lad made a little error in the sums, told me it would be thirty metres long. Not thirty kilometres. And nobody said nothing about a thousand fathoms of water, neither".
"I think you could been more exacting in your surveying. We did specify it was The Channel"
"Oh, yes, guv, certainly, could have been, could have been indeed. We fort you meant a channel, you know, sort of small ditch at the back of your estate, that sort of thing. But, well, there it is, what with the water getting in, and the storms, and the shifting sands, and the fish boring holes in the foundations, and that problem with the van breaking down....tell you what, call it twenty four billion and I'll let you off the extra four bags of quick-drying cement"
Rishi Sunak gracefully paid tribute to his successor and was reciprocated. After the insults of the past six weeks, this made a pleasant change. Then the "no-surprises" Cabinet appointments were made and a new government started work.
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